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      “一闸三线”工程受水区水资源多目标优化配置模型

      Multi-objective optimal allocation model of water resources in water-receiving area of One Gate and Three Lines Project

      • 摘要: 福建省平潭及闽江口水资源配置(简称“一闸三线”)工程实施后,受水区水资源多目标需求存在复杂竞争协调关系。为了揭示发电、供水与生态三者间的竞争协调机理,并建立其定量转换关系,针对大樟溪流域内龙湘水库与莒口水库构成的梯级水库系统,利用NSGA-Ⅲ算法求解目标函数,构建了基于多目标非支配解集的优化模型。基于多目标模型的长系列和典型年计算结果,定性分析了流域梯级水库群在发电、供水和生态需水间的竞争协调关系,并据此进一步分析了供水缺水量、生态缺水量和系统多年平均年发电量之间的转换规律和关系。结果表明:3个目标间存在显著的非对称竞争关系,其中发电与供水矛盾最为突出。通过多元回归分析,建立了不同来水频率下3个目标间的定量转换公式,拟合优度良好。该方法可为优化受水区水资源配置、减轻供需矛盾提供参考。

         

        Abstract: After the implementation of Pingtan and Minjiang Estuary Water Resources Allocation (abbreviated as the One Gate and Three Lines Project) in Fujian Province, complex competitive and coordinated relationships exist among the multiple demands for water resources in the water-receiving area. To reveal the competitive and coordinated mechanisms and establish quantitative conversion relationships among power generation, water supply and ecology, an optimization model based on multi-objective non-dominated solution set was constructed for the cascaded reservoir system consisting of Longxiang Reservoir and Jukou Reservoir in the Dazhangxi River Basin, with the objective functions solved using the NSGA-Ⅲ algorithm. Based on long-term series and typical-year calculation results from the multi-objective model, a qualitative analysis was conducted on the competitive and coordinated relationships among power generation, water supply and ecological water demand in the cascaded reservoir system. Furthermore, the conversion patterns and quantitative relationships among water supply deficit, ecological water deficit, and the system′s multi-year average power generation were analyzed. The results indicated a significant asymmetric competition among the three objectives, with the most pronounced contradiction observed between power generation and water supply. Quantitative conversion formulas among the objectives under different inflow frequencies were established through multiple regression analysis, demonstrating good goodness-of-fit. This method can provide a reference for optimizing water resource allocation in water-receiving area and alleviating supply-demand contradictions.

         

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