Abstract:
Lushui River Basin is characterized by short flow concentration time and high suddenness of floods, making high spatio-temporal resolution radar data crucial for rainstorm monitoring and forecasting in this basin. Taking the flood-inducing rainstorm in the Lushui River Basin on July 1, 2024 as an example, this study utilized radar intensity products such as combined reflectivity (CR), constant altitude plan position indicator (CAPPI), and vertically integrated liquid (VIL) for quantitative precipitation forecasting, radar velocity products including radial velocity (Vc) and vertical wind profile (VWP) for identifying rain cluster development, and operational hydrologic product/thunderstorm hydrologic product (OHP/THP). The results show that: ① This rainstorm process was generated by the combined effects of an upper-level trough, a low-vortex shear, and a low-level jet stream. The prolonged maintenance of this weather system provided favorable conditions for moisture transport and dynamic lifting. ② Radar echo characteristics, including banded strong echoes above 40 dBZ, high vertical integrated liquid content (VIL value exceeding 10 kg/m
2), a 3 km thickness of strong echo (CAPPI above 40 dBZ), and significant train effects are key factors for forecasting widespread short-duration heavy precipitation. ③ The zero-velocity line on the radial velocity map exhibits "S" and inverted "S" shaped features, indicating the alternation of cold and warm advection. The location and orientation of the counter-wind zone reflect changes in the future heavy precipitation area. Analyzing the vertical characteristics of the wind field using the wind profiler product (VWP) can help to predict the timing and intensity of precipitation. ④ Although the radar 1 hour/3 hours accumulated precipitation products (OHP/THP) underestimated the actual rainfall amount, the OHP product performed well in estimating the precipitation range and center. After correction, the product can provide an effective reference for rainstorm monitoring and forecasting.