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      1961~2022年鄱阳湖流域极端降水时空变化规律研究

      Study on spatio-temporal variation patterns of extreme precipitation in Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2022

      • 摘要: 为探究鄱阳湖流域极端降水的时空变化规律,基于1961~2022年流域内气象站点的逐日降水数据,选取10个极端降水指数,采用主成分分析法构建极端降水综合评价函数,据此对各站点进行评分与排序,并利用K-means聚类分析揭示其空间分布特征。结果表明:①流域内多数站点的极端降水指标呈上升趋势,而南部部分站点呈下降趋势;除持续干燥指数(CDD)外,北部地区的各项指标历年平均值普遍高于南部。②各极端降水指数之间具有较高的相关性,主成分分析提取的3个主成分累计方差贡献率达96%,有效反映了极端降水的主要特征。③聚类分析将站点划分为3类,其中低值区主要分布在流域南部,高值区集中在东北部,分类结果与实际观测数据具有较高的一致性。

         

        Abstract: To investigate the spatio-temporal variation patterns of extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin, ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated based on daily observational data from meteorological stations within the basin from 1961 to 2022. A comprehensive evaluation function for extreme precipitation was constructed using principal component analysis, which was then used to score and rank each station. The spatial distribution characteristics were further elucidated by K-means cluster analysis. The results indicated that: ① Most stations showed an increasing trend in extreme precipitation indices, except for some in the south showing a decreasing trend. The historical averages of all indices in the northern part were generally higher than those in the south, except for the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD)index. ② The various extreme precipitation indices were highly correlated. Three principal components were extracted through principal component analysis, with the cumulative variance contribution rate accounting for 96% of the total variance, effectively reflecting the main characteristics of extreme precipitation. ③ All stations were classified into three clusters via cluster analysis. The low-value cluster was primarily distributed in the southern part of the basin, while the high-value cluster was concentrated in the northeast, and the classification was highly consistent with the actual observations.

         

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