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      基于水文气象分区线性矩法的珠江流域暴雨频率研究

      Frequency analysis of extreme precipitation based on hydrometeorological regional linear moments method in Pearl River Basin

      • 摘要: 为提升珠江流域暴雨频率估计精度,以珠江流域63个站点年最大降水序列为数据基础,采用GLO、GEV、GNO、GPA和P-Ⅲ五种频率分布曲线,对比水文气象分区线性矩法与常规矩法参数估计的无偏性和稳健性;融合气象成因与水文统计特性划分水文气象一致区,通过蒙特卡洛模拟和均方误差筛选各一致区最优分布,进而分析流域暴雨频率的时空分布特征。结果表明:水文气象分区线性矩法在无偏性和对特大值的稳健性上显著优于常规矩法;珠江流域被划分为5个水文气象一致区,最优分布依次为GEV、GNO、GLO、GEV、GEV。流域2~1 000 a重现期暴雨频率估计值范围为68.43~857.99 mm,且估计值随重现期延长呈系统性增长。暴雨高值区集中在东南沿海,低值区分布于东北、西北地区,北部109°E~111°E、24.5°N~26°N为暴雨中心;流域频率估计值与实测值整体相关系数达0.973 2,降水量200 mm以下拟合精度高,降水量200 mm以上偏差增大。水文气象分区线性矩法可适用于珠江流域暴雨频率分析,研究确定的各一致区最优分布及暴雨频率时空特征,可为流域防洪减灾、水资源综合管理提供参考。

         

        Abstract: To improve the accuracy of estimating the frequency of rainstorms in the Pearl River Basin, annual maximum precipitation sequence of 63 stations in the Pearl River Basin were taken as the data foundation. Combining with GLO, GEV, GNO, GPA and P-Ⅲ frequency distribution curves, we compared the unbiasedness and robustness of parameter estimation of hydrometeorological regional linear moments method and conventional moment method. We Integrated meteorological causes and hydrological statistical characteristics to divide the hydro-meteorological consistent areas.Through Monte Carlo simulation and root mean square error, we selected the optimal distribution of each consistent area, and then analyzing the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the basin′s rainstorm frequency. The results indicated that linear moment method was significantly superior to the conventional moment method in terms of unbiasedness and robustness to extreme values. Pearl River Basin was divided into 5 hydro-meteorological consistent areas, and the optimal distributions were successively GEV, GNO, GLO, GEV, and GEV. Estimated values of the basin′s 2~1 000-year recurrence period rainstorm frequency ranged from 68.43 mm to 857.99 mm, and the estimated values showed a systematic increase with the extension of the recurrence period. High-value rainstorm areas were concentrated in the southeast coast, and the low-value areas were distributed in the northeast and northwest regions, with the rainstorm center located at 109°E~111°E and 24.5°N~26°N. Overall correlation coefficient between the estimated values and the measured values was 0.973 2, with high fitting accuracy below 200 mm, and the deviation increased with the extension of the recurrence period. Hydrometeorological regional linear moments method was applicable to the analysis of rainstorm frequency in the Pearl River Basin. The optimal distributions and spatio-temporal characteristics of each consistent area determined by the study can provide a reference for the prevention and control of flood disasters and the comprehensive management of water resources in the basin.

         

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