Abstract:
To improve the accuracy of estimating the frequency of rainstorms in the Pearl River Basin, annual maximum precipitation sequence of 63 stations in the Pearl River Basin were taken as the data foundation. Combining with GLO, GEV, GNO, GPA and P-Ⅲ frequency distribution curves, we compared the unbiasedness and robustness of parameter estimation of hydrometeorological regional linear moments method and conventional moment method. We Integrated meteorological causes and hydrological statistical characteristics to divide the hydro-meteorological consistent areas.Through Monte Carlo simulation and root mean square error, we selected the optimal distribution of each consistent area, and then analyzing the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of the basin′s rainstorm frequency. The results indicated that linear moment method was significantly superior to the conventional moment method in terms of unbiasedness and robustness to extreme values. Pearl River Basin was divided into 5 hydro-meteorological consistent areas, and the optimal distributions were successively GEV, GNO, GLO, GEV, and GEV. Estimated values of the basin′s 2~1 000-year recurrence period rainstorm frequency ranged from 68.43 mm to 857.99 mm, and the estimated values showed a systematic increase with the extension of the recurrence period. High-value rainstorm areas were concentrated in the southeast coast, and the low-value areas were distributed in the northeast and northwest regions, with the rainstorm center located at 109°E~111°E and 24.5°N~26°N. Overall correlation coefficient between the estimated values and the measured values was 0.973 2, with high fitting accuracy below 200 mm, and the deviation increased with the extension of the recurrence period. Hydrometeorological regional linear moments method was applicable to the analysis of rainstorm frequency in the Pearl River Basin. The optimal distributions and spatio-temporal characteristics of each consistent area determined by the study can provide a reference for the prevention and control of flood disasters and the comprehensive management of water resources in the basin.