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      ENSO与多海盆海温协同对长江流域关键期降水的影响

      Coordinated effects of ENSO and multi-basin SST on precipitation over Yangtze River Basin during critical periods

      • 摘要: 为深入理解海温异常对长江流域关键期降水的影响机制,提升旱涝预测能力,系统梳理了热带太平洋、大西洋及印度洋海温对流域降水影响的研究进展。基于1961~2025年长江流域降水观测资料,采用气候统计方法,分析了长江流域降水时空变化特征,并归纳了不同区域海温模态在不同阶段的影响机理。结果表明:长江流域年降水量呈不显著增加趋势,年际波动剧烈。在主汛期,热带太平洋ENSO通过调控西太平洋副热带高压及印度洋电容器效应起主导作用,大西洋与印度洋海温模态通过激发大气遥相关波列和调制水汽输送路径协同影响降水。秋汛期降水受太平洋ENSO、印度洋偶极子和大西洋海温“跨海盆”协同调控。

         

        Abstract: To gain an in-depth understanding of the mechanisms by which Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies influence precipitation during the critical periods over Yangtze River Basin, and to improve the capability of drought and flood prediction, the research progress on the impacts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans on precipitation in the basin was systematically reviewed.Based on precipitation observation data from 1961 to 2025 over Yangtze River Basin, and by employing climatological statistical methods, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation were analyzed and the influencing mechanisms of different regional SST modes at various stages were summarized.The results indicated that the annual precipitation over Yangtze River Basin exhibited a non-significant increasing trend with pronounced interannual fluctuations.During the main flood season, the tropical Pacific ENSO played a dominant role by modulating the Western North Pacific Subtropical High and the Indian Ocean capacitor effect, while SST modes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans synergistically influenced precipitation by exciting atmospheric teleconnection wave trains and modulating moisture transport pathways.During the autumn flood season, precipitation was jointly regulated by the synergistic "cross-basin" interactions among Pacific ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and Atlantic SST.

         

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