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      2025年台风“竹节草”期间苏州河超历史高水位分析

      Analysis of record-high water level in Suzhou River during Typhoon "Co-may" in 2025

      • 摘要: 2025年台风“竹节草”期间,苏州河水位突破历史极值,对上海市防汛安全构成了严峻挑战。介绍了台风“竹节草”期间苏州河沿线降水情况及苏州河超历史高水位成因,并与2024年台风“康妮”期间苏州河水情进行对比,提出了应对方案且利用水文水动力模型模拟了方案效果。结果表明:台风“竹节草”期间苏州河水位超历史高水位的主要原因是河道槽蓄量在短时间内急剧增加,具体表现为台风带来的极端强降水导致两岸水利片涝水快速向苏州河汇集,同时受上游底水和外江高潮位顶托,苏州河自身涝水外排能力严重受限,“汇入快、排出慢”的双重不利因素叠加,致使水位迅速上涨。相较2024年台风“康妮”,台风“竹节草”强度大、降雨集中,水利片及圩区调蓄水量和苏州河排水量均显著增加。通过模型模拟分析,若按现状工况实施两岸限排方案,可使苏州河沿程各站最高水位下降约0.3 m;若规划黄浦江河口建闸和苏州河河口建泵方案,可使苏州河沿程最高水位降低0.19~0.48 m;以上两种应对方案都可显著增强苏州河的防洪排涝能力。

         

        Abstract: During the Typhoon "Co-may" in 2025, the water level of Suzhou River exceeded the historical maximum, which posed a severe challenge to the flood control safety in Shanghai City.The precipitation along the Suzhou River during Typhoon "Co-may" and the cause of the super historical high water level of Suzhou River were intruduced, which was compared with the water situation of Suzhou River during Typhoon "Kong-rey" in 2024.The solution was put forward, and the effect of the solution was simulated by the hydrological hydrodynamic model.The results showed that the main reason for the super high water level of Suzhou River during Typhoon "Co-may" was that the storage capacity of the river channel increased sharply in a short time.Specifically, the extreme heavy precipitation brought by the Typhoon led to the rapid collection of waterlogging from both sides of the water resources area to Suzhou River, and at the same time, the discharge capacity of Suzhou River′s waterlogging was severely limited by the bottom water in the upper reaches and the top of the high tide in the outer river.The double adverse factors of "fast inflow and slow discharge" were super-imposed, causing the water level to rise rapidly.Compared with the 2024 Typhoon "Kong-rey", the intensity of Typhoon "Co-may" was strong, the rainfall was concentrated, and the water storage and drainage of Suzhou River in the water conservancy area and polder area were significantly increased.According to the model inversion analysis, the maximum water level of all stations along Suzhou River could be reduced by about 0.3 m if the discharge limit scheme was implemented according to the current working conditions.If the Huangpu River estuary gate and Suzhou River estuary pump were planned, the highest water level along the Suzhou River could be reduced by 0.19 ~ 0.48 m, which could significantly enhance the flood control and drainage capacity of Suzhou River.

         

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