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      上海中心区域水面蒸发量变化趋势分析

      Trend analysis of water surface evaporation in central area of Shanghai City

      • 摘要: 为研究局地气象要素对蒸发量的影响,有效开展蒸发量趋势预测,基于2006~2025年闵行区淀浦河东闸站与大治河西闸站蒸发观测数据,综合运用描述性统计、线性回归分析、参数和非参数显著性检验、距平分析、Sen′s斜率估计联合Mann-Kendall趋势检验等多种数理统计方法,系统探讨两站月、季、年度蒸发量的波动特征和变化趋势。结果表明:随着全年季节变化,两站蒸发量1~8月整体呈现上升趋势,9~12月呈现下降趋势,其中6月出现不升反降的异常现象,主要原因为上海地区受长江中下游梅雨季节典型气候特征影响;淀浦河东闸站和大治河西闸站的季节蒸发量波动性由大到小均为夏>冬>春>秋;淀浦河东闸站四季蒸发量均有不显著上升趋势,大治河西闸站春、夏季呈不显著下降趋势,秋季呈不显著上升趋势,冬季蒸发量呈显著上升趋势;配对t检验结果显示两站年蒸发量均值无显著性差异,月蒸发量均值除10月、11月外,其他各月均无显著性差异。研究成果可为区域水资源管理、水文气象研究提供参考。

         

        Abstract: To investigate the influence of local meteorological elements on evaporation, and effectively conduct evaporation trend forecasting, this study analyzed evaporation data of Dianpu East Sluice Station and Dazhi West Sluice Station in Minhang District from 2006 to 2025 by using descriptive statistics, linear regression, parametric and non-parametric significance tests, anomaly analysis, and Sen′s slope estimation combined with the Mann-Kendall trend test to examine monthly, seasonal, and annual evaporation fluctuations and trends.Results showed that evaporation at both stations increases from January to August and decreased from September to December, with an anomalous decline in June due to the plum rain climate in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River area.Seasonal evaporation variability at both stations follows the order as summer > winter > spring > autumn.The Dianpu East Sluice Station showed an insignificant upward trends in all seasons, and the Dazhi West Sluice Station showed insignificant downward trends in spring and summer, an insignificant upward trend in autumn, and a significant upward trend in winter.A paired t-test indicated non-significant difference in annual mean evaporation between the two stations, while monthly mean evaporation differed significantly only in October and November.The findings can provide a reference for regional water resource management and hydrometeorological research.

         

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