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      基于动态聚类的库区滑坡变形预测研究

      Research on landslide deformation prediction in reservoir area based on dynamic clustering

      • 摘要: 为实现对滑坡演化状态的动态识别与位移高精度预测,提出一种基于动态聚类的滑坡变形预测模型(DCPF)。该框架由时间聚类模块(TCM)和通道相关建模模块(CCM)组成,TCM用于自适应提取滑坡位移序列中的主要变形模式,CCM用于刻画多监测变量之间的相关性特征,从而实现滑坡变形状态识别与变形预测的统一建模。以三峡库区白家包滑坡、八字门滑坡为例,对DCPF模型分别进行验证和适用性探讨,并将结果与SVR和LSTM模拟结果进行对比。结果表明:在白家包滑坡案例中,DCPF模型在各监测点上的决定系数均稳定在0.98以上,特别是在大变形监测点ZD3,DCPF模型预测平均绝对误差较LSTM模型降低了22.8%;DCPF模型在八字门滑坡的长时序复杂演化中依然保持极高的稳健性。研究成果验证了DCPF模型在处理滑坡复杂非线性变形及多变量耦合特征方面的优势,可为库区滑坡灾害预警提供参考。

         

        Abstract: To achieve the dynamic identification of landslide evolutionary states and high-precision displacement prediction, a landslide deformation prediction model based on Dynamic Clustering (DCPF) was proposed.This model consists of a Temporal Clustering Module (TCM) and a Channel Correlation Modeling (CCM) module.The TCM was utilized to adaptively extract the principal deformation patterns from landslide displacement sequences, while the CCM characterized the correlations among multiple monitoring variables.This integration enabled the unified modeling of both landslide deformation state identification and deformation prediction.Taking Baijiabao and Bazimen landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area as case studies, the validity and applicability of DCPF were evaluated, and the results were compared with simulations from SVR and LSTM models.The findings indicated that in the Baijiabao landslide case, the coefficient of determination for the DCPF model consistently remained above 0.98 across all monitoring points.Notably, at the large-deformation monitoring point ZD3, the Mean Absolute Error of its prediction was reduced by 22.8% compared to the LSTM model.Furthermore, the DCPF maintained extremely high robustness during the complex, long-term evolution of the Bazimen landslide.These research verified the advantages of DCPF model in handling the complex non-linear deformation and multivariate coupling characteristics of landslides, providing a high-precision analytical tool for the early warning of landslide disasters in reservoir areas.

         

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