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      基于博弈论组合赋权的水利水电工程事故应急能力影响因素分析

      Influencing factors analysis of emergency response capability for water resources and hydropower engineering accidents based on game-theoretic combined weighting

      • 摘要: 为了降低水利水电工程事故发生率,引入博弈论中的组合赋权模型对水利水电工程事故应急能力影响因素进行分析。综合考虑水利水电工程事故特点,建立水利水电工程事故应急能力影响因素指标体系;采用环比评分法得到主观权重,构建二次规划模型求解客观权重,利用博弈论组合赋权将主、客观权重进行综合计算,得到水利水电工程事故应急能力影响因素的重要性排序,并以龙羊峡水电站工程为例验证了模型的有效性。结果表明:影响水利水电工程事故应急能力的5个重要因素分别为日常安全宣传与管理、应急能力专业培训与演练、安全监测与预警、应急人员保障和物资装备保障。该方法能够平衡主客观权重,可以为水利水电工程事故应急能力分析提供参考。

         

        Abstract: To reduce the accident frequency in water resources and hydropower engineering projects, a combined weighting model based on game-theory was introduced to analyze the factors influencing the emergency response capability for such projects. Considering the comprehensive characteristics of water resources and hydropower engineering accidents, an index system for the influencing factors of emergency response capability was established. The chain comparison scoring method was adopted to determine subjective weights, while a quadratic programming model was constructed to solve objective weights. The game-theoretic combined weighting approach was then used to integrate the subjective and objective weights through comprehensive calculation, yielding a priority ranking of the influencing factors for the emergency response capability of water resources and hydropower engineering accidents. The Longyangxia Hydropower Station was taken as a case study to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results showed that the five most significant factors influencing the emergency response capability were: routine safety publicity and management, emergency training and drills, safety monitoring and early warning, emergency personnel support, and material and equipment support. This method effectively balanced subjective and objective weights, providing a reference for the analysis of emergency response capability in water resources and hydropower engineering accidents.

         

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