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      2025年“竹节草”台风期间苏州河超历史高水位分析

      Analysis of the Record-High Water Level in Suzhou River During Typhoon "Co-may" in 2025

      • 摘要: 2025年台风“竹节草”影响期间,苏州河水位突破历史极值,对上海城市防汛安全构成了严峻挑战。本文通过对“竹节草”台风的概况、台风期间苏州河的超历史水位、以及苏州河两岸区域降水特征进行分析,揭示了此次极端水情的成因。分析表明,苏州河水位超历史纪录的主要原因是河道槽蓄量在短时间内急剧增加。其背后机理在于,台风带来的极端强降水导致两岸水利片涝水快速向苏州河汇集,同时,受上游底水和外江高潮位顶托,苏州河自身涝水外排能力严重受限,“汇入快、排出慢”的双重不利因素叠加,致使水位迅速上涨。通过与去年“康妮”台风进行对比,进一步凸显了“竹节草”台风暴雨组合致灾因素的极端性。基于此分析,本文最后从优化调度方案和工程措施等方面,提出了应对未来类似极端事件的措施与建议。

         

        Abstract: During Typhoon " Co-may ", the water level of Suzhou River exceeded its historical maximum, posing severe challenges to flood control safety in Shanghai. We analyze the overview of Typhoon " Co-may, " the record-high water level in Suzhou River during the typhoon, and the precipitation characteristics in the areas along both sides of Suzhou River, revealing the causes of this extreme water event. The analysis indicates that the primary reason for the record-high water level in Suzhou River was the rapid increase in channel storage within a short period. The underlying mechanism lies in the extreme heavy rainfall brought by the typhoon, which caused floodwater from both sides of the river to rapidly converge into Suzhou River. Simultaneously, due to the backing-up effect of the upstream base flow and the high tidal level of the outer river, the drainage capacity of Suzhou Creek was severely limited. The combination of these two adverse factors—"rapid inflow and slow outflow"—led to a sharp rise in the water level. By comparing Typhoon " Co-may " with last year’s Typhoon " Kong-rey ", the extremity of the disaster-inducing factors associated with the typhoon’s rainstorm combination is further highlighted. Based on this analysis, we propose measures and recommendations, such as optimizing scheduling plans and engineering measures, to address similar extreme events in the future.

         

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