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      基于博弈论组合赋权的水利水电工程事故应急能力影响因素分析

      Analysis of the Influencing Factors on Emergency Capacity of Hydroelectric Engineering Accidents Based on Game Theory Combination Weighting

      • 摘要: 为了更加全面地分析水电工程事故应急能力影响因素,弥补单独从主观判断上考虑的偏颇及不足,构建水电工程事故应急能力影响因素指标体系,利用环比评分法得到主观权重,克服了层次分析法为满足判断矩阵一致性所需计算复杂、运算量大、工程实现性差的缺点;考虑实际工程中由于事故的突发性导致指标信息不完全的情况,采用二次规划模型求解客观权重,利用博弈论组合赋权将上述结果进行综合计算,得到水电工程事故应急能力影响因素的重要性权值,进而结合水电工程事故案例进行分析。结果表明:影响水电工程事故应急能力的五个重要因素分别为日常安全宣传与管理、应急能力专业培训与演练、安全监测与预警、应急人员保障和物资装备保障,是行业人员和相关部门在今后的安全生产过程中需要重点关注的对象。
         

         

        Abstract: In order to comprehensively analyze the influencing factors of emergency capability in hydroelectric engineering accidents and compensate for the bias and shortcomings of subjective judgment alone, an indicator system for the influencing factors of emergency capability in hydroelectric engineering accidents was constructed. The subjective weights were obtained by using decision alternative ratia evaluation method, overcoming the drawbacks of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, which requires complex calculations, large computational complexity, and poor engineering implementation to meet the consistency of judgment matrix. Considering the situation where the indicator information is incomplete due to the suddenness of accidents in practical engineering, a quadratic programming model was used to solve the objective weights. The above results were comprehensively calculated by game theory combination weighting to obtain the importance weight values of the influencing factors of emergency capability in hydroelectric engineering accidents, and then the hydroelectric engineering accident cases were analyzed in combination. The results indicate that the five most important influencing factors of emergency capability in hydroelectric engineering accidents are daily safety publicity and management, professional training and drills for emergency capabilities, safety monitoring and early warning, emergency personnel support, and material and equipment support, which are the key areas that industry personnel and relevant departments need to focus on in the future safety production process.
         

         

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