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      基于三维水生态足迹与脱钩模型的华东地区水资源利用与经济发展脱钩研究

      Research on Decoupling between Water Resources Utilization and Economic Developmentin East China Based on Three-Dimensional Water Ecological Footprint and Decoupling Model

      • 摘要: 揭示水资源利用与经济增长的脱钩关系,是水资源科学管理和经济政策制定的关键。通过构建三维水生态足迹模型量化华东地区水资源资本流量和存量的消耗状况。在此基础上,利用Tapio模型评估水资源利用与经济增长的脱钩关系。结果表明,上海市、江苏省和山东省需要消耗水资源资本存量来满足社会经济发展,表明水资源利用表现为不可持续,而其它省份仅依赖水资源资本流量就能够满足发展,说明水资源表现为可持续利用。研究区水资源利用与经济增长的关系多数年份下表现为强、弱脱钩,处于理想、较理想状态。其中,江西省的脱钩状态最优,而山东省最差。总体而言,上海市、山东省和江苏省的水资源供给量小于需水量,水资源利用表现为亏损,而其它省份的水资源表现为可持续利用。然而,随着经济体制更新与增长动力转变,社会对水资源供给能力提出更高要求。各省市应坚持绿色发展理念,通过健全水权与水价管理机制、优化水资源空间配置及提升污水处理技术等举措,从而保障水资源可持续利用。

         

        Abstract: Revealing the decoupling relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth is crucial for the scientific management of water resources and the formulation of economic policies. This study quantifies the consumption of water capital flows and stocks in East China by constructing a three-dimensional water ecological footprint model. On this basis, the Tapio model is employed to evaluate the decoupling relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth. The results show that Shanghai, Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province have to draw on water capital stocks to support socioeconomic development, indicating unsustainable water resource utilization. In contrast, other provinces can meet their development needs only by relying on water capital flows, demonstrating sustainable water use. The relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth in the study area is characterized by strong and weak decoupling in most years, presenting an ideal or relatively ideal state. Among them, Jiangxi Province achieves the best decoupling performance, while Shandong Province performs the worst. Overall, water supply falls short of water demand in Shanghai, Shandong Province and Jiangsu Province, resulting in a water deficit, whereas water resources in other provinces are sustainably utilized. Nevertheless, with the reform of the economic system and the transformation of growth drivers, society has placed higher demands on water supply capacity. All provinces and cities should adhere to the concept of green development and take measures such as improving water rights and water price management mechanisms, optimizing the spatial allocation of water resources, and upgrading wastewater treatment technologies to ensure the sustainable utilization of water resources.

         

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