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      基于生态足迹的新疆水资源可持续利用时空演变研究

      Spatiotemporal evolution of sustainable utilization of water resources in Xinjiang based on the ecological footprint model

      • 摘要: 水资源的可持续开发利用是缓解干旱、半干旱地区水资源供需矛盾,促进水资源与区域社会、经济和生态环境协调发展的重要举措。在此过程中,如何科学量化评估区域水资源利用的可持续性是关键问题之一。本研究基于生态足迹理论与方法,以新疆为研究对象,对2014—2022年新疆水资源可持续利用的时空演变规律与特征进行系统评估。结果表明:1)新疆水资源生态足迹总体呈波动下降趋势,从2014年的9616.54万ha下降至2022年的9292.33万ha,农业用水足迹波动下降是主要因素。2)水资源生态承载力整体轻微下降,主要受到水资源时空分布不均、西北干旱区气候“暖湿化”以及政策调控等综合因素的影响。3)新疆水资源利用可持续性的时空差异较为显著,水资源禀赋的时空异质性及社会经济快速发展导致各行业需水量逐年增加是影响各地区水资源可持续利用的主要因素。研究成果揭示了新疆水资源可持续利用的时空演变规律和分布格局,可为该地区水资源、社会经济与生态环境的高质量协调发展提供科学依据与决策参考。

         

        Abstract: The sustainable development and utilization of water resources serve as a critical measure to alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in arid and semi-arid regions, and to promote the coordinated development among water resources, regional society, economy, and ecological environment. Against this backdrop, the scientific quantitative assessment of the sustainability of regional water resource utilization has become one of the core issues. Based on the ecological footprint theory and methodology, this study takes Xinjiang as the study area and systematically explores the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and characteristics of sustainable water resource utilization in the region from 2014 to 2022. The results show that: 1) During the study period, the water resource ecological footprint of Xinjiang exhibited an overall fluctuating downward trend, decreasing from 96.1654 million ha in 2014 to 92.9233 million ha in 2022, with the fluctuating reduction in the agricultural water footprint being the primary contributing factor. 2) The water resource ecological carrying capacity showed a mild fluctuating downward trend overall, which is primarily driven by factors such as the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of water resources, the "warming and wetting" climatic change in arid areas of Northwest China, and policy regulation. 3) The temporal and spatial differences in the sustainability of water resource utilization in Xinjiang are quite significant, a phenomenon mainly attributed to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water resource endowment and the rapid socio-economic development, which has led to increasing water demand across various industries. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and distribution characteristics of the sustainable utilization of water resources in Xinjiang, thereby providing a scientific basis and decision-making support for the high-quality coordinated development of regional water resources, social economy, and ecological environment.

         

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