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      基于径流系数的山洪预报模型适用性分析

      Analysis of adaptability of mountain flood forecast models based on runoff coefficient

      • 摘要: 为了解决山区流域资料缺乏、模型实用度低及洪峰流量预报精度不高等问题,通过建立山洪灾害致灾因子与降雨-径流响应机制的关系,以及下垫面参数与径流系数的定量函数,提出了基于径流系数的山洪预报模型,并选取海河、黄河、淮河、长江流域中12个具有代表性的山洪易发小流域作为研究区域,以分析其适用性。结果表明:验证期该模型在各流域中的洪峰合格率超过60%,平均峰现时差低于3 h,纳什效率系数高于0.6,能够较为准确地模拟洪水过程,且参数校准简便,显著提升了预报的准确性与适用性。湿润地区模型的应用效果明显优于半湿润半干旱地区,在具有相似产汇流机制的区域表现出良好的适用性。该模型具有简便易用、效果显著的优点,在山洪预报工作中具有一定的参考价值。

         

        Abstract: To address the problems of insufficient data in mountainous basins, low model practicality, and inadequate accuracy in peak flow forecast, a runoff coefficient-based mountain flood forecast model was proposed by establishing the relationship between disaster-causing factors of mountain floods and the rainfall-runoff response mechanism, as well as the quantitative function between underlying surface parameters and runoff coefficients. Twelve representative small watersheds prone to mountain floods in the Haihe River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, and Changjiang River basins were selected as study areas to analyze model applicability. The results showed that the model achieved a qualified peak flow rate of over 60% in all basins during validation period, with an average peak time difference of less than 3 hours and a Nash efficiency coefficient above 0.6, which can accurately simulate the flood process. Moreover, its simple parameter calibration significantly improved the accuracy and applicability of the forecast. Particularly in humid regions, the model s performance was significantly better than in semi-humid and semi-arid regions, demonstrating a good applicability in areas with similar runoff generation and concentration mechanisms. The research indicates that the model has the advantages of being simple, easy to use, and effective, showing a broad application prospects and promotion value in mountain flood forecast work.

         

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