Abstract: To predict landslide-dammed lake disaster chains more comprehensively and accurately, the basic characteristics of these disaster chains were analyzed.It was proposed that landslide damming is not only influenced by decisive factors such as landslide volume, sliding distance, and river erosion capacity but is also closely related to influencing factors such as landslide triggers and valley topography.The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to assess the damming contribution of each hazard factors, leading to the establishment of a relatively accurate and comprehensive rapid risk assessment formula for landslide-dammed lake disaster chains.In this formula, landslide volume has a weight of 0.53, making it the most significant contributing factor to damming, while triggering factors and valley slope increase the landslide hazard level.The risk assessment of the 2017 Baige landslide damming event showed that the landslide volume (28 million m³) far exceeded the minimum damming threshold (415 000 m³), and the theoretical sliding distance (62 000 m) was much greater than the river width plus the distance from the rear edge to the river (1 450 m).These results indicated that the Baige landslide posed an extremely high risk of complete river blockage.The model can effectively predict large-scale landslide damming events and holds scientific value for disaster prevention and control of landslide-dammed lake disaster chains in high-mountain canyon regions of southwestern China.