Water Resources Supply-Demand Balance and Driving Force Simulation in Jiangsu Province

Studying the regional water resources supply-demand balance under the dual stresses of climate change and human activities serves as the foundation for optimal water allocation and scientific management, and holds significant importance for ensuring the long-term steady development of the economy and society.In this study, a system dynamics (SD) model of the water resources supply-demand system in Jiangsu Province was established to quantitatively and multi-dimensionally simulate the dynamic trends of water resources supply-demand balance under four scenarios that fully consider the impacts of climate change and human activities.On this basis, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was employed to analyze the driving forces causing changes in water demand.The results indicate that during the prediction period, the contradiction between water supply and demand intensifies continuously under all four scenarios. Technical effects and economic effects are identified as the primary driving forces that inhibit and promote, respectively, the growth of water demand in the study area. Furthermore, scenario comparison results show that Scenario QS1, characterized by the fastest economic growth and the highest level of water use efficiency, represents a suitable development mode for the future of Jiangsu Province.