Estimation and Forecasting of Stratified Agricultural Water Demand in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Based on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, a stratified agricultural water demand forecasting model applicable to the Yangtze River Economic Belt was developed, in which agricultural water use was classified into rigid demand for ensuring basic food security and elastic demand supporting high value-added agricultural production. Agricultural water use data from 12 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during 2000–2023 were used to verify the rationality of the model, and agricultural water demand trends for each region were projected with 2030 as the target year. The results indicate that total rigid agricultural water demand within the basin is expected to reach 95.65 billion m³ in 2030, while elastic demand is projected to be 241.72 billion m³, approximately 2.5 times the rigid demand. Agricultural water use exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity, characterized by declining demand in eastern regions, relatively stable demand in western regions, and increasing structural differentiation. These patterns suggest substantial potential for structural regulation of agricultural water use under the constraint of food security. Relatively large prediction errors in rigid demand are observed in several provinces, mainly due to strong influences from improvements in natural conditions and adjustments in food security policies, reflecting the stage-specific and uncertain nature of agricultural water demand. The findings provide a scientific basis for refined agricultural water management and coordinated basin-wide regulation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.